Normalcy

So the Nats went 4-4 on the road trip (including an ignominious sweep at the hands of the Dodgers). They hold a record of 14-8, tied (for now) for first place in the National League East.

Like I’ve said previously, the Nats were bound to cool off. To date, they have scored 74 runs (an average of 3.36 runs per game). They have allowed a total of 59 runs (an average of 2.68 runs per game). According to our handy-dandy Pythagorean Win Expectation calculation, they should be 13-9. The Nats are thus performing at the level that we should expect.

They continue to outperform my pre-season calculations. According to my pre-season projections, the Nats should be  12-10, having scored 84 runs, while allowing 77 runs.

Again, the Nats pitchers have done a tremendous job of keeping opposing runs off the scoreboard. Indeed, the actual Nats have allowed  18 fewer runs than I had initially supposed they might.

But the continued dominance of the Nats pitching staff has been almost entirely negated by the continuing impotence of their offense: according to my calculations, the Nats should have scored 10 more runs than they have actually done. A vastly improved Adam LaRoche and Jayson Werth are welcome news. But this line-up still misses Michael Morse and (now) Ryan Zimmerman. Recent arrivals Bryce Harper and Tyler Moore look to shake things up, but I did not include them in my initial projections, and have no real way of knowing just how much they will contribute.

This is the new normal, Nats town.

 

About these ads

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s