Silly Season

I went ahead and checked the #nats hashtag on twitter for the first time in ages.

Bad choice. Some damn fool is out there ranting about how Storen shouldn’t be back with the Nats, and looking at Rafael Soriano, the Yankees’ reliever, as a possible “savior.”┬áThis is the stupidest thing I have read in many weeks.

Go ahead. Compare Storen with Soriano head-to-head since 2010. They’re not all that different from one another, actually. So, on the surface, it doesn’t seem like an implausible suggestion, if, for instance, Storen were to be injured or otherwise unavailable.

But consider that according to Cot’s Contracts, Soriano would be owed some $14 million in 2013. If he takes a $1.5 million buyout and becomes a free agent, it’s safe to assume that Rafa Soriano would demand a contract at least as generous as the one the Yankees had given him, and perhaps even more so. But, for the sake of argument, let’s say the Nats could sign him for whatever the Yankees would be due to pay him–14 million.

Now let’s look at Drew Storen. According to Cot’s, Storen made $498,750 in 2012. He’s arbitration-eligible this year, so he’ll be owed a raise in arbitration. We don’t know how much of a raise Storen will get [I'm hoping to figure that out in a few weeks--watch this space!], but let’s just stipulate right now that no arbitration panel could possibly award Storen a $14 million salary for next year.

One more thing, too: Drew Storen is 25 years old. Rafa Soriano is 32 years old.

So, you’re left with a choice between two substantially similar pitchers. One of them will cost you 14 million. The other will cost you, hell, let’s just say he’ll cost you 2 million. Why would you pay seven times more to get substantially the same thing, but seven years older?

If you’re seriously thinking that this sort of transaction is a good idea, I can only conclude that you hit your head on something hard when you drank yourself to sleep after Black Friday’s blown save.

One thought on “Silly Season

  1. If you believe in the whole 40-60-80% of FA value marker, I’d guess that Storen is worth roughly $10M on the open market as a better-than-average closer, meaning his arbitration awards may go like this: $4M, $6M, $8M, $10M. Those are probably high numbers though, since Storen was hurt all year. But if you look at the best most recent Nat example of a closer reaching arbitration (Chad Cordero) this is almost exactly what happend. He got 4.1 first year. 6.2M second year and was non-tendered after that.

    But I totally agree; whoever is ranting about spending ANY money on a closer outside of arbitration awards isn’t really in touch with modern baseball. Closers are a useless asset to have and spend money on. Posnanski showed that teams are winning games with 3 run leads at the exact same pace now (in the closer era) that they did in the 50s, before closers existed. I think teams like Miami (Heath Bell) and Philadelphia (Jonathan Papelbon) who spend major money on closers are fools.

    I also think the team should trade either Clippard or Storen, since there are teams out there who value the closer and who would give us value for them coming back.

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