I’ve predicted the 2012 Nats to win 84 games, and I feel pretty confident about that prediction. There are other forecasts out there, and, as the great LeVar Burton might say, you don’t have to take my word for it.
By chance, I found these 2012 standings projections over at the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog. You should peruse them at your leisure. But the notable thing is that he has the Nationals winning 83 games in 2012, one under my projection of 84 wins, but close enough.
According to the poster, he used the Marcel the Monkey forecasting system by the legendary Tangotiger. (Who, by the way, seems most insistent that his forecasting engine is a monkey. Definitely not a shell with shoes on).
I haven’t yet had the time to break down and understand the Marcel forecasting system, nor to apply it to the Nationals, but its outputs don’t seem too far out of line.