One last tweak of the model: The 2012 Nats will win 88 games.

On my way to the ballpark today (YAY!), so I’ll have a more comprehensive post on this later this evening.

I tweaked my defensive model slightly. Instead of taking raw UZR, I decided to make a rough adjustment for projected playing time by creating a projected UZR for 2012. I took the player’s UZR/150 for 2008-2011 (my standard 4-year moving average), then adjusted it for the total number of games I expected to see that player in that position in 2012. This is a very very very crude adjustment, since it’s by “Games” and not by innings, but it at least gets at something I’ve been thinking about. [Consider the difference between Jayson Werth in Center Field–totally average–and Jayson Werth in Right Field. Werth in RF is a better defensive player.]

Adjusting for the projected opening-day line-ups, and assuming that Morse, Wang, La Roche, Bernadina, and Storen make it back to the club in about two weeks and then play the rest of the year, I predict the 2012 Nationals will win 88 games, scoring 617 runs and allowing 569.

Hang onto your hats, Nats town. It’s going to be a fun year.

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