Convergence.

The Nats lost to the Reds in extra innings today–so I’m more than a little agitated at the moment.

Amid the Natstown delerium after the Nats Friday 13th 13th-inning walk-off, before Edwin Jackson’s dominant complete-game win on Saturday, I tweeted thus:

The #nats continue to outperform my projections–and all this with LESS offense than I predicted. Wild ride: how long can it last?!

Today, I guess we’re beginning to find out. Despite scoring a mind-boggling 5 runs, the Nats could not beat a Reds team that should have been swept.

Thus far this year, the 7-3 Nats have scored 39 runs while allowing 27 runs.

My preseason projection to this point would have had them scoring 38 runs and allowing 35 runs, for a record of somewhere between 5-5 or 6-4.

As time has gone on, the Nats offensive production has begun to get closer and closer to my preseason prediction. I take no particular joy in this, because, personally, I think even that might not be right, either. With Michael Morse out of the lineup for at least two months (six weeks of “shutdown,” plus another two weeks of rehabilitation), the Nats offense is without its biggest producer.

The surprise here is the pitching. The Nats’ pitching staff has been exceptionally good at keeping opposing teams off the scoreboard. They’re outperforming the projections to date by a whopping 8 runs–good enough for 1-2 wins so far. Time will tell if that kind of performance is sustainable.

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