Projecting the 2013 Nationals, Part 4: 94 Wins or Bust?

Having determined that the 2013 Nationals are projected to allow 591 runs and score 692 runs, how many games does that mean they will win?

This is a job for the Pythagorean win expectation formula:

Wins/Losses= 1/1+(runs allowed/runs scored)^2)

Which yields us the shocking total: The 2013 Nationals are projected to win 94 games. That’s right. They’re projected to have a record of 94-68, playing .579 baseball.

Just let that wash over you for a second. I just projected this team to win over 90 games. This is exhilerating. This is terrifying.

And the thing that gets me about this is that these are all fairly conservative estimates. I’ll be playing with these numbers from time to time over Spring Training. But I’m going to go with this as my baseline estimate for 2013.

To be honest, I sat on these results for about a month, looking at them over and over and over again, utterly terrified of posting them. I am not used to being this optimistic about the Washington Nationals, ever. And now, suddenly, I am in the position of rooting not for the underdog, or the lovable loser–no, this year, I am rooting for the favorite. This is bizarre and wonderful and terrifying at once.

2 thoughts on “Projecting the 2013 Nationals, Part 4: 94 Wins or Bust?

  1. Pingback: Projecting the 2013 Nationals: Extra Innings | Natstradamus

  2. Like you said, I think it’s conservative. That’s 40 runs less than last year, with many showing Span is a 3 WAR difference over Morse, Strasburg adding another WAR, and the catcher position possibly adding 2 WAR. Gonzalez and Zimmermann may digress by 1 WAR each (especially with Zimmermann’s FIP closer to 4 than 3 last year), but that is still a conservative 4 WAR plus. And more play by Werth has to slightly raise the total WAR, too. If no injuries and using the ~1.83 exponential for the pythagorean theorem, I’m getting closer to a 100 win season calculation. Scary thought 2 years ago!!

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