Now we come to the fun part of the inning: how many runs does the home team score? The model projects that the 2013 Nationals will score 693 runs.
Assuming that an everyday position player will get about 600 plate appearances, and assuming that the plate appearances of the two catchers, Suzuki and Ramos, are divided evenly, we end up with a table that looks something like this:
| Player Name | 4-year total PA | 4-year total wRC | 4-yr moving avg wRC/PA | Projected PA | Projected wRC | Team Total wRC | |
| Jayson Werth | 2803 | 425 | 0.151623260792009 | 600 | 90.97 | ||
| Ryan Zimmerman | 2844 | 426 | 0.149789029535865 | 600 | 89.87 | ||
| Tyler Moore | 171 | 26 | 0.152046783625731 | 150 | 22.81 | ||
| Bryce Harper | 597 | 86 | 0.144053601340034 | 600 | 86.43 | ||
| Adam LaRoche | 2622 | 361 | 0.13768115942029 | 600 | 82.61 | ||
| Denard Span | 2671 | 334 | 0.125046798951703 | 600 | 75.03 | ||
| Wilson Ramos | 613 | 76 | 0.123980424143556 | 300 | 37.19 | ||
| Ian Desmond | 1849 | 214 | 0.115738236884803 | 600 | 69.44 | ||
| Danny Espinosa | 1428 | 164 | 0.11484593837535 | 600 | 68.91 | ||
| Roger Bernadina | 1150 | 121 | 0.105217391304348 | 150 | 15.78 | ||
| Chad Tracy | 845 | 85 | 0.100591715976331 | 100 | 10.06 | ||
| Kurt Suzuki | 2703 | 274 | 0.101368849426563 | 300 | 30.41 | ||
| Steve Lombardozzi | 448 | 42 | 0.09375 | 150 | 14.06 | ||
| Stephen Strasburg | 83 | 3 | 0.036144578313253 | 150 | 5.42 | ||
| Drew Storen | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Dan Haren | 240 | 19 | 0.079166666666667 | 150 | 11.88 | ||
| Craig Stammen | 90 | 3 | 0.033333333333333 | 30 | 1.00 | ||
| Jordan Zimmermann | 166 | 4 | 0.024096385542169 | 150 | 3.61 | ||
| Zach Duke | 226 | 1 | 0.004424778761062 | 30 | 0.13 | ||
| Tyler Clippard | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Gio Gonzalez | 84 | -5 | -0.05952380952381 | 150 | -8.93 | ||
| Ross Detwiler | 97 | -9 | -0.092783505154639 | 150 | -13.92 | ||
| Ryan Mattheus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Rafael Soriano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Bill Bray | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| 692.7806858275 |
As excited as we’ll all be to follow Bryce Harper in his quest to beat Mike Trout’s insane age-20 season, it’s instructive to look at this table. Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman are projected to get 91 and 90 wRC respectively. Harper is expected to do great things–86 wRC–but it’s worth noting just how much a healthy Werth and Zimmerman mean to the Nationals line-up.
Notice also that the line-up is remarkably deep. Let’s look at it from the point of view of a possible batting order:
- Denard Span, wRC 75.03
- Jayson Werth, wRC 90.97
- Bryce Harper, wRC 86.43
- Adam LaRoche, wRC 82.61
- Ryan Zimmerman, wRC 89.87
- Ian Desmond, wRC 69.44
- Danny Espinosa, wRC 68.91
- Wilson Ramos, wRC 37.19; plus Kurt Suzuki, wRC 30.41
Those first five batters, however you order them, are pretty impressive. That should make for a much deeper line-up than we’re used to seeing here in DC.
So, what does this all mean? Tune in next time as we discuss how this all fits together in Part 4.
Natstradamus 